Sixth conference on expectations surveys
Joint conference of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Thursday, 9 and Friday, 10 October 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
This annual conference aims to convene scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.
Conference topics cover a wide range of research focusing on the collection and analysis of surveys of households, firms, and financial market participants. The conference program will feature a plenary keynote session by Luigi Pistaferri of Stanford University, and a panel of survey experts focusing on best practices in conducting probability-based household internet panels.
Programme
* Indicates the presenter
- 8:30
-
Registration and Breakfast
- 8:50
-
Welcoming Remarks by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 9:00
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Expectations and Consumer Behavior
Chair: Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
-
Geopolitical Risks and their Implications for Consumer Expectations and Spending
- Olivier Coibion
- Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko
- Geoff Kenny
-
Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
- Gizem Kosar
- Davide Melcangi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
-
Wage Expectations and Job Search
- Steffen Altman
- Robert Mahlstedt
- Malte Rattenborg
- Alexander Sebald
- Sonja Settele
- Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne
- 10:30
-
Coffee Break
- 11:00
-
Firm Expectations
Chair: Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
-
The Effects of Uncertainty on Firms’ Pricing Behavior and Activity
- Giuseppe Fiori, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Filippo Scoccianti
-
Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms
- Ina Hajdini
- Saten Kumar
- Samreen Malik
- Jordan Norris
- Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank
-
Business Uncertainty in Developing and Emerging Economies
- Edgar Avalos
- Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnologico Autónomo de Mexico Business School
- Elwyn Davies
- Leonardo Iacovone
- Jesica Torres
- 12:30
-
Lunch
- 14:00
-
Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Running Expectations Surveys
Moderator: Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Panelists:
- Thomas Crossley, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
- Jeff Dominitz, Rice University
- Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
- 15:00
-
Coffee Break
- 15:30
-
Flash Talks I
Chair: Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
-
Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Demand for Contraception
- Aureo de Paula
- Grant Miller
- Christine Valente, University of Bristol
-
Search Costs, Outside Options, and On-the-Job Search
- Armando Miano, University of Naples
- What Determines Household Expectations?
- Anushka Mitra, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Aditi Singh
- 16:15
-
Coffee Break
- 16:30
-
Flash Talks II
Chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
-
Inflation Preferences
- Hassan Afrouzi
- Alexander Dietrich
- Kristian Ove Myrseth
- Romanos Priftis
- Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
-
Selective Inattention to Interest Rates
- Tim de Silva
- Pierfrancesco Mei, Goldman Sachs
-
Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment
Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmoller
Olga Goldfayn-Frank
Tobias Schmidt, Deutsche Bundesbank
- 17:45
-
Reception
- 18:15
-
Dinner
- 8:30
-
Breakfast
- 9:00
-
Keynote Lecture
Chair: Wilbert van der Klaauw
-
Eliciting Marginal Propensity Data
Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University
- 10:00
-
Coffee Break
- 10:30
-
Methods and Measurement
Chair: Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
-
Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Columbia
- Manuel Arellano
- Orazio Attanasio, Yale University
- Sam Crossman
- Victor Sancibrian
-
Learning from Survey Density Forecasts
- Martin Almuzara
- Richard Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Gizem Kosar
-
Incentivizing Inflation Expectations
- Sergii Drobot
- Daniela Puzzello, Indiana University at Bloomington
- Ryan Rholes
- Alena Wabitsch
-
Understanding the Accuracy of Non-Random Survey Through a Unique Matched Administrative – Expectations Dataset
- Naveen Rai
- Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada
- 12:30
-
Lunch
- 13:30
-
Belief Formation
Chair: Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
-
Attention to the Macroeconomy
- Sebastian Link
- Andreas Peichl
- Oliver Pfauti, University of Texas at Austin
- Christopher Roth
- Johannes Wohlfart
-
Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
Josefina Cenzon, Bocconi University
-
Lumpy Forecasts in Volatile Times
- Isaac Baley
- Javier Turen, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
- 15:00
-
End of Conference
General information
- Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
- Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
- Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
- Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
- Georgi Kocharkov, European Central Bank
- Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
- Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
- Tao Wang, Bank of Canada