Understanding inflation: lessons from the past, lessons for the future?
Thursday, 21 and Friday, 22 September 2017
Main Building, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main
Cinema room
Programme
* indicates the presenter
- 8:30
- Registration and coffee
- 8:55
-
Welcome remarks
Frank Smets, European Central Bank
-
Session 1 Household-level inflation expectations
Chair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank
- 9:00
-
Salient price changes, inflation expectations and household behaviour
Francesco D’Acunto, University of Maryland
Ulrike Malmendier, University of California at Berkeley
Juan Ospina, University of Chicago
Michael Weber*, University of Chicago - 9:30
-
Inflation expectations and choices of households: evidence from matched survey and administrative data
Slides
Nate Vellekoop*, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt - 10:00
-
Trust in the central bank and inflation expectations
Slides
Dimitris Christelis, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
Tullio Jappelli, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche BankDiscussant: Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Board
- 11:00
- Coffee break
- 11:30
-
Policy panel Low inflation – Lessons from the past, lessons for the future?
Chair: Peter Praet, European Central Bank
Panellists:
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Columbia University
- Adam S. Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Ángel Ubide, Goldman Sachs & Co.
- 13:00
-
Lunch and poster session
Poster session
The anchoring of inflation expectations in unconventional times: micro evidence for the euro area
Poster
Jonas Dovern*, Universität Heidelberg
Geoff Kenny, European Central BankPrice setting and volatility: evidence from oil price volatility shocks
Poster
Matthew T. Klepacz*, William & MaryMacroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area
Poster
Fédéric Holm-Hadulla*, European Central Bank
Kirstin Hubrich, Federal Reserve BoardServices deepening and the transmission of monetary policy
Poster
Omar Rachedi*,Banco de España
Alessandro Galesi, Banco de EspañaPrice and consumption responses to large exchange rate shocks: evidence from the great appreciation in Switzerland
Raphael A. Auer*, Bank for International Settlements
Ariel Burstein, UCLA
Sarah M. Lein, Universität Basel -
Session 2 Lessons from micro price data
Chair: Massimo Rostagno, European Central Bank
- 14:30
-
The unequal gains from product innovations: evidence from the US retail sector
Slides
Xavier Jaravel*, Stanford University
- 15:00
-
Price selection
Slides
Carlos Carvalho, Banco Central do Brasil
Oleksiy Kryvtsov*, Bank of CanadaDiscussant: Günter W. Beck, Universität Siegen
- 16:00
-
Keynote speech The formation of expectations, inflation and the Phillips curve
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California at Berkeley
- 16:45
- Coffee break
-
Session 3 The international dimension of inflation
Chair: Frank Moss, European Central Bank
- 17:00
-
International inflation spillovers through input linkages
SlidesRaphael A. Auer*, Bank for International Settlements
Andrei A. Levchenko, University of Michigan
Philip Sauré, Swiss National Bank - 17:30
-
Do global factors matter for trend inflation and the inflation gap in small open economies?
SlidesGünes Kamber, Bank for International Settlements
Benjamin Wong*, Reserve Bank of New ZealandDiscussant: Benoît Mojon, Banque de France
- 19:30
-
Conference dinner – upon invitation only
- 8:15
- Coffee
-
Session 4 Trend inflation, inflation targets and inflation expectations
Chair: Hans-Joachim Klöckers, European Central Bank
- 8:30
-
Optimal trend inflation
SlidesKlaus Adam*, Universität Mannheim
Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank - 9:00
-
Adaptive learning and survey expectations of inflation
Sergey Slobodyan, CERGE-EI
Raf Wouters*, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique - 9:30
-
Optimal inflation target in an economy with menu costs and zero lower bound
SlidesAndres Blanco*, University of Michigan
Discussant: Argia M. Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 10:30
-
Keynote speech Real exchange rate behaviour: new evidence from matched retail goods
Alberto Cavallo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- 11:15
- Coffee break
-
Session 5 Exchange rate pass-through and the Phillips curve
Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
- 11:45
-
Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass through across countries and time
SlidesKristin Forbes*, Bank of England
Ida Hjortsoe, Bank of England
Tsvetelina Nenova, Bank of England - 12:15
-
Did the global financial crisis break the US Phillips curve?
SlidesStefan Laseen*, Sveriges Riksbank
Marzie Taheri Sanjani, International Monetary FundDiscussant: Ester Faia, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
- 13:15
-
Concluding remarks
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President, European Central Bank
- 13:45
-
Lunch and poster session
Poster session
Inflation forecasts in the euro area: new insights from Phillips curve estimates and quantile regressions
Slides
Sophie Béreau, Université de Namur
Violaine Faubert*, Banque de France
Katja Schmidt, Banque de FranceALICE: a new inflation monitoring tool
Slides
Gabe de Bondt, European Central Bank
Elke Hahn, European Central Bank
Zivile Zekaite*, European Central BankTrend inflation and inflation compensation
Slides
Aubrey Poon*, Australian National University
Juan Angel Garcia, International Monetary FundAmbiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation
Slides
Riccardo M. Masolo, Bank of England
Francesca Monti*, Bank of England - 15:15
-
End of conference
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Please note that media will be attending and photography and filming activities will take place during the event.
General information
European Central Bank
Main building, Cinema room
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
+49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
info@ecb.europa.eu
Press Gallery
English
Michael Ehrmann, Eliza Lis, Carlos Montes-Galdon, Christiane Nickel, Chiara Osbat, Philip Vermeulen (all at the European Central Bank)
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
Conference email address: inflation-conference2017@ecb.europa.eu
Angie Lopez
Directorate General Economics
+49 69 1344 95450
PAC-assistants@ecb.int