Nu este disponibil în limba română
Björn Hilberg
- 6 August 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2581Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. The joint modelling of banks and funds provides new insights for the assessment of financial stability risks. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks’ capital ratios by around one percentage point.
- JEL Code
- D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
L14 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks
- 30 August 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1954Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates whether credit constraints in the US economy amplify the international propagation of US financial shocks. We model the dynamics of the US economy jointly with global macroeconomic and financial variables using a threshold vector autoregression. This model captures regime-specific dynamics conditional on the severity of credit constraints in the US economy. We identify three main episodes of tight credit in US financial history over the past thirty years. These occur in the late-1980s, in the early 2000s, and during the 2007-09 financial crisis. We find that US financial shocks are associated with a significant contraction in global economic activity in times of tight credit. By contrast, there is little impact of US financial shocks on the global economy in normal times. This asymmetry highlights an international dimension of the US financial accelerator mechanism.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C34 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
- 22 August 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1373Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we set up a New-Keynesian model that features an interbank market. The introduction of an interbank market is important to analyze liquidity problems among heterogenous agents within the financial sector. First, because this allows for a situation where increased liquidity supply by the central bank is only partially passed on to the interbank market. Second, this framework allows us to analyze one additional policy measure besides the common interest rate policy undertaken by central banks to alleviate the liquidity shortage on the interbank market. Namely haircuts on eligible assets in repurchase agreements (“Repos”). By varying haircuts applied to securities that serve as collateral in repurchase agreements the stress on the interbank market can be mitigated by bringing down the interest rate charged among banks. Furthermore an exogenous bubble process is modeled which enables us to examine the effects of a deviation of the market price of capital from its fundamental price. This leads to a discussion whether central banks should ”lean against the wind”, i.e. react to deviations of asset prices in the setting of their policy instrument. Finally, this paper tries to shed some light on the “exit strategy” that a central bank should follow after the asset price bubble bursted and the interbank market begins to work properly again.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages