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Julien Fouquau
- 2 May 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 9Details
- Abstract
- Previous work has documented a greater sensitivity of long-term government bond yields to fundamentals in Euro area stress countries during the euro crisis, but we know little about the driver(s) of regimeswitches. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model quantify and explain them: 1) investors have penalized a deterioration of fundamentals more strongly from 2010 to 2012; 2) a key indicator of regime switch is the premium of the financial credit default swap index: the higher the bank credit risk, the higher the extra premium on fundamentals; 3) after ECB President Draghi’s speech in July 2012, it took one year to restore the non-crisis regime and suppress the extra premium.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models