Kateřina Šmídková
- 16 June 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1810Details
- Abstract
- We identify a set of
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 22 October 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1486Details
- Abstract
- We search for early warning indicators that could indicate important risks in developed economies. We therefore examine which indicators are most useful in explaining costly macroeconomic developments following the occurrence of economic crises in EU and OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. To define our dependent variable, we bring together a (continuous) measure of crisis incidence, which combines the output and employment loss and the fiscal deficit into an index of real costs, with a (discrete) database of crisis occurrence. In contrast to recent studies, we explicitly take into account model uncertainty in two steps. First, for each potential leading indicator, we select the relevant prediction horizon by using panel vector autoregression. Second, we identify the most useful leading indicators with Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that domestic housing prices, share prices, and credit growth, and some global variables, such as private credit, are risk factors worth monitoring in developed economies.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 19 October 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1485Details
- Abstract
- We construct and explore a new quarterly dataset covering crisis episodes in 40 developed countries over 1970
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
Annexes- 19 October 2012
- ANNEX
- 28 September 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 810Details
- Abstract
- Is inflation persistence in the new EU Member States (NMS) comparable to that in the euro area countries? We argue that persistence may not be as different between the two country groups as one might expect. We confirm that one should work carefully with the usual estimation methods when analyzing the NMS, given the scope of the convergence process they went through. We show that due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS, parametric statistical measures assuming a constant mean deliver substantially higher persistence estimates for the NMS than for the euro area countries. Employing time-varying mean leads to the reversal of this result and suggests similar or lower inflation persistence for the NMS compared to euro area countries. Structural measures show that backward-looking behavior may be more important component in explaining inflation dynamics in the NMS than in the euro area countries.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes