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2002 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2002 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2002 2003 2004 Sep. 2003 Sep. 2004 2007
Mean point estimate 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 60 59 48 53 44 46
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2004 Sep. 2003 Sep. 2004 2007
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.30.5
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.91.5
0.5-0.9% 0.3 2.1 4.1 4.1 4.44.9
1.0-1.4% 1.5 13.0 13.9 15.9 14.914.4
1.5-1.9% 11.7 47.7 43.3 40.4 39.638.5
2.0-2.4% 77.3 27.3 26.1 27.9 26.527.7
2.5-2.9% 8.5 7.5 7.6 8.3 8.58.2
3.0-3.4% 0.4 1.8 2.9 1.9 3.73.2
>3.5% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.21.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2002 2003 2004 2003 Q2 2004 Q2 2007
Mean point estimate 0.8 1.8 2.5 1.7 2.5 2.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 60 59 51 54 44 47
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2004 2003 Q2 2004 Q2 2007
<0.0% 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.7 0.70.7
0.0-0.4% 6.5 3.0 0.9 3.3 1.11.2
0.5-0.9% 65.0 8.0 2.8 10.1 3.12.8
1.0-1.4% 22.6 21.2 6.5 23.5 6.45.5
1.5-1.9% 3.6 33.8 18.4 31.6 15.812.9
2.0-2.4% 0.4 21.3 31.7 18.3 29.832.2
2.5-2.9% 0.5 8.9 27.0 7.7 28.030.8
3.0-3.4% 0.7 2.1 8.5 2.5 9.69.4
3.5-3.9% 0.4 0.7 2.5 0.9 3.53.6
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.3 2.11.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2002 2003 2004 Aug. 2003 Aug. 2004 2007
Mean point estimate 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.3 7.9 7.2
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 58 57 47 49 40 41
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2004 Aug. 2003 Aug. 2004 2007
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.8
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.14.3
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.57.2
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.6 2.3 0.3 2.315.8
7.0-7.4% 0.8 3.5 9.0 2.7 13.625.7
7.5-7.9% 6.3 13.6 31.4 16.0 29.322.0
8.0-8.4% 73.8 41.5 35.3 44.9 32.711.5
8.5-8.9% 16.3 31.9 16.0 29.0 13.56.3
9.0-9.4% 1.9 6.8 4.1 5.5 5.83.4
9.5-9.9% 0.4 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.81.4
10.0-10.4% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.40.5
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0