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2010 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2010 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2010 2011 Mar. 2011 Mar. 2012 2014
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 54 52 44 39 45
Probability distributions 2010 2011 Mar. 2011 Mar. 2012 2014
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.10.9
0.0 to 0.4% 3.8 4.4 5.9 3.72.3
0.5 to 0.9% 16.7 13.8 15.7 9.45.8
1.0 to 1.4% 38.7 27.2 28.8 22.615.6
1.5 to 1.9% 29.9 32.7 29.7 31.931.5
2.0 to 2.4% 8.1 13.8 13.4 19.726.7
2.5 to 2.9% 1.8 5.1 4.0 8.110.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.5 1.0 2.54.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.71.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2010 2011 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2014
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 54 52 46 43 42
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2014
<-1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.60.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.50.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.41.1
0.0 to 0.4% 8.7 4.1 5.0 3.92.8
0.5 to 0.9% 26.9 13.0 16.2 10.66.5
1.0 to 1.4% 37.1 28.2 31.5 26.317.4
1.5 to 1.9% 18.2 29.9 28.3 28.829.1
2.0 to 2.4% 4.4 14.7 11.8 18.224.4
2.5 to 2.9% 1.3 4.7 3.9 6.611.2
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 1.5 1.0 2.24.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.71.6
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2010 2011 Feb. 2011 Feb. 2012 2014
Mean point estimate 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.0 8.5
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7
Number of replies 53 52 42 38 41
Probability distributions 2010 2011 Feb. 2011 Feb. 2012 2014
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.4
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12.3
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.26.3
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.613.7
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.6 0.3 1.720.2
8.5 to 8.9% 0.3 1.8 0.7 4.919.3
9.0 to 9.4% 2.4 8.1 3.7 10.617.4
9.5 to 9.9% 15.4 19.8 13.3 20.211.0
10.0 to 10.4% 42.0 29.9 30.4 31.05.1
10.5 to 10.9% 28.2 24.7 30.8 19.62.0
11.0 to 11.4% 8.6 10.3 14.0 7.10.6
11.5 to 11.9% 2.3 3.1 5.1 2.40.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.00.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.40.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0