The use of surveys for monetary and economic policy
SUERF-Banca d’Italia-European Central Bank-European Investment Bank conference
26 and 27 April 2023 - Hybrid event
Over the past years, surveys have gained importance to supplement information from “hard” economic data on various aspects of the economy, and to provide timely insights on the impact from sudden and unexpected developments, such as COVID-19, the energy crisis and the sudden sharp increase in inflation. Surveys cover a broad range of economic actors and sectors, such as households, firms, financial institutions and economic and financial forecasters. Central banks, policy institutions and academia are using insights from such surveys increasingly to inform their appraisal of the state and outlook of the economy as well as possible risks, to study the distributional effects of policies and to inform policy decisions. That said, existing surveys also have many limitations and caveats, and survey methods and research are currently developing very rapidly, given a changing economic environment, with new pressing policy and research questions emerging at a rapid pace.
Registration linkProgramme
Times are Central European Time
- 14:00
-
Welcome and Introduction
Luigi Federico Signorini, Senior Deputy Governor, Banca d’Italia
Jakob de Haan, SUERF President I Professor, University of Groningen - 14:15
-
Keynote lecture
Heterogeneous spending and saving behaviors: What can we learn from survey experiments?Stefanie Stantcheva, Professor, Harvard University
- 15:00
-
Session 1: Monetary Policy
Chair: Stefano Neri, Banca d’Italia I SUERF
-
Paper: A Diverse Fed Can Reach Underrepresented Groups
Michael Weber, University of Chicago I NBER
Co-authors: Francesco D'Acunto, Georgetown University, and Andreas Fuster, EPFLDiscussant: Luigi Guiso, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
-
Paper: Fed Sentiment and Expectations: Evidence from Speeches by FOMC Members
Greta Meggiorini, University of California, Irvine
Co-authors: Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank, and Vegard H. Larsen, BI Norwegian Business SchoolDiscussant: Maria Sole Pagliari, Banque de France
-
Paper: Building Central Bank Credibility: The Role of Forecast Performance
Ryan Rholes, University of Oxford
Co-author: Michael McMahon, University of OxfordDiscussant: Laurent Maurin, European Investment Bank
- 16:45
-
Coffee break
- 17:00
-
Session 2: Firms
Chair: Marco Bottone, Banca d’Italia
-
Paper: Why firms lay off workers instead of cutting wages: Evidence from matched firm survey-administrative data
Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco I Hoover Institution
Co-authors: Antoine Bertheau, University of Copenhagen; Birthe Larsen, Copenhagen Business School, and Morten Bennedsen, University of CopenhagenDiscussant: Annalisa Ferrando, European Central Bank
-
Paper: The effects of the 2021 energy crisis on medium and large industrial firms: evidence from Italy
Matteo Alpino, Bank of Italy
Co-authors: Luca Citino and Annalisa Frigo, both Banca d'ItaliaDiscussant: Nils Wehrhöfer, Deutsche Bundesbank
-
Paper: Advanced digital technologies and investment in employee training: Complements or substitutes?
Christoph Weiss, European Investment Bank
Co-authors: Giorgio Brunello, University of Padova, and Désirée Rückert and Patricia Wruuck, both European Investment BankDiscussant: Fabiano Schivardi, LUISS University
- 18:45
-
End of day 1
- 9:30
-
Session 3: Households
Chair: Tiziano Ropele, Banca d’Italia
-
Paper: How do borrower households adjust in a household foreign currency debt crisis?
Győző Gyöngyösi, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE
Co-authors: Judit Rariga, European Central Bank, and Emil Verner, MITDiscussant: Andrea Pozzi, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
-
Paper: Wealth shocks and portfolio choice
Tullio Jappelli, Università di Napoli Federico II
Co-authors: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank; Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank and Center for Financial Studies, and Dimitris Christelis, University of GlasgowDiscussant: Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank
-
Paper: Household expectations and dissent among policymakers
Moritz Grebe, Giessen University
Co-author: Peter Tillmann, Justus-Liebig-Universität GießenDiscussant: Klodiana Istrefi, Banque de France
- 11:15
-
Coffee break
- 11:30
-
Session 4: Monetary and Macroprudential Policies
Chair: Elisa Guglielminetti, Banca d’Italia
-
Paper: Cooling the mortgage loan market: The effect of value-based and income-based prudential limits on new mortgage lending
Martin Hodula, Czech National Bank
Co-authors: Milan Szabo, Lukáš Pfeifer and Martin Melecký, all Czech National BankDiscussant: Aicha Kharazi, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
-
Paper: Short and variable lags
Vasco M. Carvalho, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Co-authors: Gergely Buda, Barcelona School of Economics; Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI; João B. Duarte, Nova School of Business and Economics; Stephen Hansen, University College London; Álvaro Ortiz and Tomasa Rodrigo, both BBVA, and José Rodríguez Mora, University of EdinburghDiscussant: Stefano Pica, Bank of Italy
- 12:40
-
Lunch
- 13:40
-
Session 5: Inequality
Chair: Giordano Zevi, Banca d’Italia
-
Paper: Inequality and business cycles
Florin Bilbiie, University of Cambridge
Co-authors: Giorgio E. Primiceri, Northwestern University, and Andrea Tambalotti, Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkDiscussant: José Elías Gallegos Dago, Banco de Españao
-
Paper: Distributional effects of inflation in the euro area
Filippo Pallotti, University College London
Co-authors: Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Jiri Slacalek and Oreste Tristani, all European Central Bank, and Giovanni Violante, Princeton UniversityDiscussant: Clodomiro F. Ferreira, Banco de España
- 14:50
-
Presentation
The use of private market surveys at the European Investment Fund (EIF)Antonia Botsari and Frank Lang, EIF
- 15:15
-
Policy panel
Chair: Silvia Fabiani, Head of Statistical Analysis Directorate, Banca d’Italia
- Andrea Brandolini, Deputy Director, General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Banca d’Italia
- Debora Revoltella, Director of the Economics Department, European Investment Bank I SUERF
- Natacha Valla, Dean, Sciences Po, School of Management and Innovation I SUERF
- Caroline Willeke, Deputy Director, General Statistics, European Central Bank
- 17:00
-
Concluding remarks
Ernest Gnan, SUERF Secretary General
- 17:10
-
End of conference
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: Images and video recordings may be published online.
General information
Hybrid event
Banca d’ Italia
via Nazionale 91
00184 Rome
Italy
and online via Webex
English
- David Loschiavo and Concetta Rondinelli, Banca d’Italia, local organizers
- Ernest Gnan, SUERF
- Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
- Matteo Gatti and Peter Harasztosi, EIB