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Chloe Larkou

13 September 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2980
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Abstract
By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3,000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
18 June 2024
FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOX
Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2024
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Abstract
The European Union's FinTech industry has experienced rapid growth since the 2010’s, with a significant concentration of firms in major financial centers. This Box suggests that one of the reasons for the clustering of FinTechs close to financial centres may be easier access to equity finance. The analysis also shows that FinTechs outside financial centres compared to Fintechs that cluster in financial centers need to rely more on their performance as a signalling device to potential funding providers. Given the relevance of incubators and accelerators for early-stage development and funding of FinTech startups, the article points to the need to further investigate the role and effectiveness of institutional support schemes. It also underscores the need to advance on the EU’s capital markets union (CMU) agenda, in particular as regards policy efforts to grow European equity markets, in terms of both liquidity and depth.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
16 May 2024
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
The rapid increase in interest rates observed over the last few years could weaken the ability of firms to service and roll over their debt and, consequently, worsen the outlook for bank asset quality. This box combines firm-level balance sheet data with loan-level data to assess the joint impact of resilient post-pandemic profitability and higher financing costs on the debt servicing capacity of euro area firms. The interest burdens of euro area firms are estimated to have increased only slightly, as higher revenues largely offset their higher interest payments. The impact of higher debt service costs has been disproportionately strong in the real estate sector, which has faced weakened demand, as well as in countries where floating-rate lending is prevalent. Some vulnerable firms may benefit from refinancing in a more favourable environment if market rates fall as expected. Banks should recognise credit distress promptly and offer viable solutions to firms which struggle to service their debt. However, even among firms with low interest coverage ratios, the majority of bank loans have not been restructured and remain performing..
JEL Code
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
14 May 2024
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
Geopolitical risk can be a threat to financial stability and the global economy. It can adversely affect the economy and financial markets and consequently have a negative impact on the funding, lending, solvency, asset quality and profitability of banks and non-banks alike. Recent history suggests that adverse geopolitical events alone are unlikely to cause a systemic crisis, although they may act as a trigger for systemic distress if they interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities. Looking ahead, policy authorities need to monitor geopolitical risk and assess its possible consequences for financial stability. Financial institutions should apply a combination of sound risk management and business diversification to address geopolitical risk.
JEL Code
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors