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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
GOVOR
25. april 2025
Izjava ECB za Mednarodni monetarni in finančni odbor (IMFC)
Svet ECB je odločen zagotoviti, da se inflacija v srednjeročnem obdobju vzdržno stabilizira na ciljni 2-odstotni ravni. Spričo izjemne negotovosti se bomo o ustrezni naravnanosti denarne politike odločali na podlagi podatkov in na vsaki seji posebej.
Odpri izjavo
BLOG ECB
25. april 2025
Banke se prilagajajo na zmanjšano centralnobančno likvidnost
Novi operativni okvir eno leto po uvedbi deluje, kot je bilo predvideno, ob tem ko se Eurosistemova bilanca stanja normalizira. V prispevku na blogu ECB ocenjujemo, kako so se banke in denarni trgi prilagodili na novo okolje.
Blog ECB
DOGODEK
28. april 2025
Seminar ECB za medije - prijavite se zdaj
Na seminarju boste lahko neuradno razpravljali o denarni politiki in bančnem nadzoru ter se srečali z nosilci politik v ECB.
Registracija do 5. maja- 28 April 2025
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
- 24 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 23 April 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 23 April 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 23 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 25 April 2025
- Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the fifty-first meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 23 April 2025
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” in Washington D.C., United States
- 17 April 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 17 April 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 April 2025
- 8 April 2025
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +
- 7 April 2025
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference "The interplay between tax and financial regulations in a new digital environment" organised by the Banca d'Italia, the Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law and the Vienna University of Economics and Business in Rome, Italy
- 24 March 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf
- 16 March 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jon Ihle
- 7 March 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patricia Hecht and Beate Willms on 5 February 2025
- 28 February 2025
- Contribution to Bancaria by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, based on remarks at the Crypto Asset Lab Conference on 17 January 2025
- 20 February 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, conducted by NVDE
- 25 April 2025
- One year after its announcement, the new operational framework is working as intended. Euro area banks have adapted to declining central bank reserves as the Eurosystem's balance sheet is normalising. The ECB Blog assesses how banks and money markets cope with the new environment.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
ESTR : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 18 April 2025
- Central banks usually seek to align very short-term interest rates in the money market with their own policy rate. But money market rates fluctuate also for reasons other than policy. This blog shows that monetary policy is more effective if such fluctuations are small.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 7 April 2025
- Military and diplomatic conflicts harm economic growth. This ECB blog shows that the expected length of wars matters for how strongly they weigh on consumer sentiment.Details
- JEL Code
- D10 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→General
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 4 April 2025
- Institutional investors are increasingly active in housing markets across Europe. The ECB blog examines implications for house price growth and the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 28 March 2025
- We constantly hear of exciting new ways AI tools can help to tackle economic problems and the productivity gains they bring. However, benefits can only materialize when firms actually use AI.
- 28 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box provides a model-based analysis of the impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures on economic growth and inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, as reflected in the March 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. Fiscal policy lent substantial support to the euro area economy in response to the pandemic and the energy crisis, while adding to public deficits and debt. Overall, the analysis shows that discretionary fiscal policy measures had a strong positive impact on real GDP growth during the years 2020-2022 and were broadly neutral thereafter owing to their partial reversal. They are also estimated to have had an upward effect on inflation overall, particularly during the years 2023-2024. Having introduced energy and inflation compensatory measures in 2022, which helped contain inflation, governments started to withdraw them from 2023. This unwinding contributed to a build-up of inflationary pressures resulting from the fiscal stimulus in previous years.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 25 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 24 April 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3051Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the role of mortgage refinancing in shaping the estimates of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for fiscal policy. Using U.S. household data, we find that MPCs decrease during the year of mortgage refinancing and stabilize afterwards, particularly among households with lower liquid assets, higher debtto-income ratios, and valuable illiquid assets. The empirical evidence suggests that refinancing provides extra liquidity, reducing MPCs. We leverage on a partial equilibrium model to quantitatively assess these effects and to explore the role of home-equity extractions for fiscal policy. Our findings highlight a new dimension for the efficacy of cash transfers: targeted programs that consider higher MPCs of no-refinancers generate savings between 4 and 12% compared to non-targeted programs. These estimates imply approximately $30 billions in potential savings under the CARES Act of March 2020.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
- 23 April 2025
- THE EXCHANGE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS – BPM6 - BOOKLETAnnexes
- 23 April 2025
- THE EXCHANGE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS – BPM6 - BOOKLET
- 23 April 2025
- THE EXCHANGE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS – BPM6 - BOOKLET
- 22 April 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 22 April 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 22 April 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 22 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 79 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 17 and 26 March 2025, activity growth was gradually improving, reflecting an incipient recovery in the industrial sector. The employment outlook was also improving slightly but remained relatively flat, as firms continued to focus on efficiency and productivity. Price growth was holding steady at moderate rates, while firms were increasingly confident that wage growth would slow further. Many firms reacted positively to recent announcements regarding increased defence and infrastructure spending, while taking a “wait and see” attitude in relation to pending tariffs.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 21 April 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3050Details
- Abstract
- The primary objective of this study is to explore the dynamic relationships between equity returns or volatility and sentiment factors in European markets during both the periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 itself, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We achieve this by applying the network methodology initially introduced by Diebold & Yilmaz (2014), along with its extensions based on realized measures and generalized forecast error variance decomposition, as proposed by Baruník & Křehlík (2018) and Chatziantoniou et al. (2023). Additionally, we investigate how the global sentiment factor influences the overall connectedness index by employing a quantile-on-quantile approach, following the methods outlined by Sim & Zhou (2015) and Bouri et al. (2022). To conduct our analysis, we utilize daily-frequency data encompassing the period from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2023, covering the entirety of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 across six European stock indices. Our primary discovery is the interconnectedness of both returns and sentiment. Furthermore, our resultsindicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, there is a notable increase in volatility spillovers among the analyzed stock indices, driven by the heightened interconnectedness between stock market returns.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G40 : Financial Economics
- 15 April 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 15 April 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 15 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 14 April 2025
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 14 April 2025
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 9 April 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3049Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the impact of reforms altering legal central bank independence (CBI) on monetary policy discipline and credibility, two key mechanisms shaping price stability. Using a sample of 155 countries over more than 50 years (1972–2023), we show that reforms improving CBI strengthen monetary discipline and the credibility of central banks. Larger reforms enhance monetary discipline with a lag, achieving their full effect after ten years. Central bank reforms have a greater impact on monetary discipline in countries that have not reversed earlier reforms. CBI reforms have the strongest impact in democratic countries, countries with flexible exchange rates, and those without a monetary policy strategy. The effects of CBI on monetary discipline and credibility are amplified when public debt-to-GDP ratios are high. These findings underscore the crucial role of CBI as a key factor influencing price stability and highlight the risks associated with weakening institutional autonomy.
- 9 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPSRelated
- 9 April 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - SCHEME RULEBOOK DEVELOPMENT GROUP DOCUMENTS
- 9 April 2025
- MIP NEWS
- 2 April 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3048Details
- Abstract
- We study how short-term interest rate volatility affects the transmission of monetary policy. To identify exogenous changes in volatility, we exploit the pronounced heteroskedasticity visible in the time-series of euro area short-term rates over the past two and a half decades. Interacting the exogenous variation in volatility with high-frequency-identified monetary policy shocks, we find that increases in volatility dampen the effects of monetary policy on output and prices. This dampening effect is visible already at the earlier stages of transmission, including in the pricing and volume of bank lending.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 1 April 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3047Details
- Abstract
- Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank’s introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a simple natural language processing model (Word2Vec), only based on the information and model parameters available as of each press conference. We show that a measure based on such embeddings contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead. Other common textual analysis techniques, such as dictionary-based metrics or sentiment metrics do not obtain the same results. The information contained in the embeddings remains valuable for out-of-sample forecasting even after controlling for the central bank inflation forecasts, which are an important input for the introductory statements.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 1 April 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 28Details
- Abstract
- This article explores the link between geopolitical risk and bank solvency and discusses the potential implications for macroprudential policy. Drawing on 120 years of data, analysis reveals that heightened geopolitical risk has been associated with lower bank capitalisation over the past century. This effect can arise through multiple economic and financial channels, including reduced economic activity, surging inflation, increased sovereign risk, and shifts in capital flows and asset prices. However, the analysis also finds that the impact of geopolitical risk on bank solvency has been non-linear, with major geopolitical risk events having a much stronger effect than less major or more localised geopolitical shocks, with the effect being heterogenous across countries. Macroprudential policy and microprudential supervision play important and complementary roles in ensuring that banks are sufficiently prepared to absorb potential geopolitical shocks. While microprudential supervision ensures that geopolitical risk is factored into capital and liquidity planning, macroprudential capital buffer requirements can be released when shocks materialise, thereby supporting banks in absorbing losses while maintaining the provision of key financial services to the real economy.
- JEL Code
- G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 31 March 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3046Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the role of firms in the transmission of monetary policy to individual labor market outcomes, both the intensive and extensive margins. Using German matched employer-employee administrative data, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on individual employment and labor income conditioning on the firm characteristics. First, we find that the employment of workers in young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks. Second, wages of workers in large firms react relatively more, with some pronounced asymmetries: differences between large and small firms are more evident during monetary policy easing. The differential wage response is driven by above-median workers and cannot be fully explained by a worker component. Notably, larger firms adjust wages more significantly despite experiencing similar changes in investment and turnover compared to smaller firms. Furthermore, monetary policy tightening disproportionately impacts low-skilled and low-wage earners, while easings amplify inequality due to substantial wage increases for top earners. Overall, the effect of monetary policy on inequalities is however larger in easing periods – driven by a large increase in wages for top earners.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 31 March 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3045Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and economic resilience. Using data collected by the Quality of Government Institute, we conduct a two-way fixed effect panel regression model for around 200 European regions during the period 2010 to 2021. Our findings establish a positive relationship between institutional quality and medium-term GDP growth. This effect is more pronounced in regions with low-income per capita, highlighting the importance of asymmetries across European regions. A convergence of regions with low institutional quality to the EU median would increase annual GDP per capita growth by 0.5 percentage points over the medium-term. Additionally, regions with high quality institutions are more resilient to adverse shocks and have a lower incidence of crisis. Our results suggest that regional institutional reforms, such as increasing public sector efficiency or reducing corruption, would spur growth, resilience, and convergence in the European economy.
- JEL Code
- O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
R50 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Regional Government Analysis→General
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 31 March 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
Obrestne mere
| Mejni depozit | 2,25 % |
| Operacije glavnega refinanciranja (fiksna obrestna mera) | 2,40 % |
| Mejno posojilo | 2,65 % |
Stopnja inflacije
Več o inflacijiDevizni tečaji
| USD | US dollar | 1.1357 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 162.80 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85310 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9421 |
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