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Frank de Jong
- 8 May 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2056Details
- Abstract
- Earlier research has shown that euro area primary public debt markets affect secondary markets. We find that more successful auctions of euro area public debt, as captured by higher bid-to-cover ratios, lead to lower secondary-market yields following the auctions. This effect is stronger when market volatility is higher. We rationalize both findings using a simple theoretical model of primary dealer behavior, in which the primary dealers receive a signal about the value of the asset auctioned.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 28 January 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1629Details
- Abstract
- We use realised variances and co-variances based on intraday data from Eurozone sovereign bond market to measure the dependence structure of eurozone sovereign yields. Our analysis focuses on the impact of news, obtained from the Eurointelligence newsflash, on the dependence structure. More news raises the volatility of interest rates of financially distressed countries and decreases the covariance of distressed countries' yields with German bond yields, suggesting a flight-to-quality effect. Common news about the euro crisis and news about specific countries itself tend to raise the covariance of yields between distressed countries, indicating potential crisis spillover effects. However, we do not detect spillover effects from news about third countries to the covariance between other country pairs. Bond purchases by the ECB under its Securities Markets Programme (SMP) mitigate the negative crisis spillovers among the distressed countries and reduce the flight-to-safety from the distressed countries to Germany.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 27 September 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1595Details
- Abstract
- Exploring the period since the inception of the euro, we show that secondary-market yields on Italian public debt increase in anticipation of auctions of new issues and decrease after the auction, while no or a smaller such effect is present for German public debt. However, these yield movements on the Italian debt are largely confined to the period of the crisis since mid-2007. We also find that there is some tendency of the yield movements to be larger when the demand for the new issue is smaller relative to its supply. Our results are consistent with a framework in which a small group of primary dealers require compensation for inventory risk and this compensation needs to be higher when market uncertainty is larger. We also find that the secondary-market behaviour of series with a maturity close to the auctioned series, but for which there is no auction, is very similar to the secondary-market behaviour of the auctioned series. These findings support an explanation of yield movements based on the behaviour of primary dealers with limited risk-bearing capacity.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 31 January 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 432Details
- Abstract
- We study the microstructure of the MTS Global Market bond trading system, which is the largest interdealer trading system for Eurozone government bonds. Using a unique new dataset we find that quoted and effective spreads are related to maturity and trading intensity. Securities can be traded on a domestic and EuroMTS platform. We show that despite the apparent fragmentation of trading, both platforms are closely connected in terms of liquidity. We also study the intraday price order flow relation in the Euro bond market. We estimate the price impact of order flow and control for the intraday trading intensity and the announcement of macroeconomic news. The regression results show a larger impact of order flows during announcement days and a higher price impact of trading after a longer period of inactivity. We relate these findings to interdealer trading and to the structure of European bond markets.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes - Network
- ECB-CFS Research Network on "Capital Markets and Financial Integration in Europe"
- 27 August 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 385Details
- Abstract
- We study sovereign yield dynamics and order flow in the largest euro-area treasury markets. We exploit unique transaction data to explain daily yield changes in the ten-year government bonds of Italy, France, Belgium, and Germany. We use a state space model to decompose these changes into (i) a "benchmark" yield innovation, (ii) a yield spread common factor innovation, (iii) country-specific innovations, and (iv) (transitory) noise. We relate changes in each of these factors to national order imbalance and find that Italian order imbalance impacts the common factor innovation, French and Belgian order imbalance impact country-specific innovations, and German order imbalance only changes yields temporarily. Order imbalance, however, does not have explanatory power for the most important factor: benchmark yield innovations.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation - Network
- ECB-CFS Research Network on "Capital Markets and Financial Integration in Europe"