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Tajda Spital
International & European Relations
- Division
External Developments
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
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Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics,Economic Growth
- 30 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box illustrates how aggregate greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are showing increasing signs of fragmentation along geopolitical fault lines. Euro area outward flows are following this trend, with greenfield investments increasingly tilted towards the United States and away from China. However, firms have also stepped up investment between geopolitical blocs to boost local production content in anticipation of protectionist measures or retaliatory tariffs. Econometric evidence from gravity models shows that the overall effect of increasing geopolitical divides on FDI is negative, with FDI flows within geopolitical blocs being almost three times higher than FDI flows between geopolitical blocs in recent quarters. Moreover, the estimates suggest that global FDI flows were dampened by 3% following the increases in average geopolitical distance owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, geopolitical divides have become a particularly strong deterrent to greenfield FDI both into and out of the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
- 3 September 2024
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
- 29 July 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- China’s investment-led growth model enabled an unparalleled period of high growth and economic development. However, the rate at which China can productively absorb investment is declining as its economy matures. Nevertheless, the most recent policy approach to address economic weakness is to double down on its investment-centric approach and to identify new productive sources, which is widely expected to increase already existing overcapacities. Efforts to direct these overcapacities to export markets, often through lower prices or prices made competitive by comparatively high rates of state subsidies, will have global implications for China’s trading partners. Lower priced exports could lead to spillovers of disinflationary pressures, both through direct and indirect effects via changes in the pricing behaviour of trading partners’ domestic firms. China's growing dominance in global exports of advanced manufacturing and green technology will affect competitiveness among China’s major trading partners. Industrial and trade policies will be increasingly important in determining the economic outcome of China’s trade relations.
- JEL Code
- O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 15 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article reviews the impact of Brexit on recent developments in UK trade and labour markets. While it will take some time for the full impact of Brexit to emerge and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a confounding factor, the available data allow a first stocktake of the effects of Brexit. While significant uncertainties regarding the precise magnitudes remain, the available evidence suggests that Brexit has been a drag on UK trade and has contributed to a fall in labour supply.
- JEL Code
- F1 : International Economics→Trade
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
- 10 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Post-pandemic labour market developments in the United States and United Kingdom show that imbalances between labour demand and labour supply are causing a high and unusual tightness in the labour market for such an early stage in a recovery. This could translate into broad-based wage pressures, in turn posing a risk to inflation. Such pressures are becoming increasingly visible in the United States, but are less marked in the United Kingdom.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital