Nije dostupno na hrvatskom jeziku.
Björn Richter
- 30 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3126Details
- Abstract
- Using novel data on sectoral safe asset positions in 21 advanced economies since 1980, we document the central role of the foreign sector in the market for safety and its macroeconomic implications. We show that safe asset holdings have expanded significantly relative to GDP, driven by rising net holdings of the foreign sector and accommodated by increased issuance from the financial and public sectors. Furthermore, fluctuations in safe assets are almost exclusively driven by the foreign and financial sectors, with close links between the two. Finally, increases in foreign demand for safety-or its counterpart, the supply by financials-are associated with domestic credit expansions and weaker medium-term output growth, both in raw data and when using FX reserve accumulation in Asian economies as instrument.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 27 June 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2672Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are associated with increasingly large output gaps. Before 1945, bank asset returns had no excess predictive power for future economic activity, while after 1945 they have outperformed non-financials as a predictor of GDP. We provide evidence linking this increasing connectedness between banks and the macroeconomy to secular increases in financial and macroeconomic leverage.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
N20 : Economic History→Financial Markets and Institutions→General, International, or Comparative
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme